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+--- Thread: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript (/thread-4650.html)
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - Urtx13 - 24-04-2025
(24-04-2025, 12:04 PM)oshfdk wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.(24-04-2025, 11:54 AM)Urtx13 wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.The table you shared beautifully illustrates this: the 1405 seed yields coherent predictions; 2025 doesn’t.
If I understand it correctly, you tried various splits and various seeds and the 4-way split with seed 1405 showed the best results? I'm not in academia, so I'm not sure if this is methodologically sound. I mean, given only a limited number of folios there bound to be a combination where there will be a pattern.
Sorry, but that reasoning confuses possibility with statistical significance.
Yes, any dataset can produce some pattern under some split — but the key question is: how often do those patterns arise under random conditions?
We tested that. And the answer is: not often at all. When we randomize the data (by permuting sequences, reordering folios, or using other seeds), the signal disappears. That’s the whole point of running permutation tests — to estimate the likelihood of false positives due to overfitting or structural coincidence. Do you know what a permutation test, an ablation test, and the others mean?
So yes, in theory, you could find some pattern in any dataset. But if only one configuration produces a meaningful result, and none of the others do, that result isn’t just a fluke — it’s statistically validated.
That’s what statistical testing is for.
(24-04-2025, 12:08 PM)nablator wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.(24-04-2025, 11:54 AM)Urtx13 wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.Because any clustering will always find some internal order — that’s just how unsupervised learning works. But the real test is whether it consistently aligns with an external structure (in our case, the lunar phases we hypothesize). That only happens at seed 1405.
I understand a little better, thanks. 1405 is special.
I was confused because you wrote earlier:
"The seed 1405 is arbitrary and used solely to ensure full reproducibility. Any other fixed number would work — this one was chosen to match the year 1405, which aligns with the possible calendar framework used in the analysis"
Ah, I see — no worries!
You can use any fixed number — the point of setting a seed is to lock the randomness for reproducibility. What matters is that only when randomness is closed at 1405, the semantic structure emerges. When we lock it at other values, or fully shuffle the data, the pattern disappears.
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - nablator - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - oshfdk - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - Urtx13 - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - oshfdk - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - Urtx13 - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - Urtx13 - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - ReneZ - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - nablator - 24-04-2025
RE: Strong evidence of a structured four-phase system in the Voynich Manuscript - oshfdk - 24-04-2025