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05-04-2019, 05:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2019, 06:03 PM by nablator.)
(05-04-2019, 04:31 PM)geoffreycaveney wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.However, I still believe [d] may be a substitute for [p] and [f]. I believe the explanation may lie in the author's use of alliteration and assonance. The sounds that these letters represent may simply tend to appear very frequently clustered together on the same lines, as an expression of this alliteration and assonance. In this case, [d] may be a substitute for [p] and [f], and still [d] may appear just as frequently or even perhaps more frequently on lines with [p] or [f] than on lines without [p] or [f].
There is no theory that cannot be saved by an additional ad hoc hypothesis. I see Voynich research as a battle against confirmation bias - my own - because it is very easy to get stuck in a cognitive trap. I have my own ideas on what the encryption may be and now that I have a credible cipher that generates good-looking Voynichese without a dictionary I try to look for a refutation, not a confirmation, because I'd rather not spend years working on it if I can reject the idea in two weeks. This is why fallibility is a good thing to have for any theory.
A theory that makes no quantitative prediction that can be checked and can account for almost anything, including randomly generated pseudo-Voynichese necessarily has a very low probability. It may be worth investigating anyway, but one should be aware of the low value of success, as evidence, in this case. I don't remember how to calculate it with Bayes' formula and of course it is impossible to calculate anything when the test includes subjectivity, but you get the idea - I hope. 
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22-04-2019, 01:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 22-04-2019, 02:00 PM by ReneZ.)
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