[split] On the validation of Theories

[nablator]

It might be an interesting exercise to try to rate various theories quantitatively.

For instance, a Voynich forgery depends on unused parchment surviving 600 years - theoretically possible but unlikely- but what are the odds? A million to 1? How many instances of such have ever been observed?

By comparison, Aliens Didit must be far less likely - no confirmed cases ever - though maybe theoretically possible - odds perhaps a trillion to 1?

“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.” Terry Pratchett, Mort.

Magicians win.