(29-08-2026, 03:16 AM)Jorge_Stolfi wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.With that assumption and the C14 results, we then could say that
- the Herbal bifolios (3 sampled) were almost certainly (more than 80%) made sometime in 1390-1460.
- the Astro/Cosmo bifolios (1 sampled) could have been made in 1308-1362 (~40%) or 1385-1436 (~50%).
These are all probabilities for individual folios. Given that the folios nowadays belong and for a long time have belonged to the same object and share the script, the image styles, and are of compatible sizes, one cannot ignore the probability of 4 random samples from this object producing a coherent largely overlapping result in the carbon isotope measurement. Your logic would totally apply if we were identifying when 4 totally distinct objects were produced. The questions one needs to answer are of the kind "given these ranges of three of four similar looking folios, how should we adjust the probability distribution of the creation date of the fourth?", etc. For me, all these probabilities give the overall very high likelihood of the range provided in the report.
Unless there is some real evidence for a multidecade (40+ years) production, I see no real reason to go beyond 1404-1438 range provided in the report, it looks conservative enough for me.