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Assumptions baked into the VMS carbon dating
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(30-08-2026, 06:08 PM)ololololo wrote: You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login to view.From the voynich.nu:
The probability distributions of the four measurements are shown together in Figure 2 below: This shows in a very visual, yet qualitative way that the four measurements are consistent. There is no indication that the samples represent a different age.
Well, I disagree.  

Based on that data, it is still possible that all the four bifolios have the same C14/C12 ratio.  But it is more likely that the ratio for bifolio f67+f68 is significantly lower than the ratios of f26+f31 and f42+f47, while that of f1+f8 is a bit higher.  Again, there is no reason to assume a priori that the four bifolios all have the same ratio.

Moreover, showing the probability distributions of the C14/C12 ratio is misleading, because the same value of that ratio can correspond to very different dates. One should look at the probability distributions of the calibrated dates.  And these show that there is ~40% probability that the vellum of bifolio f67+f68 is ~75 years older than the others.

All the best, --stolfi
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RE: Assumptions baked into the VMS carbon dating - by Jorge_Stolfi - 30-08-2026, 10:26 PM

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