I wanted to come back and share my results in attempting to connect the numerous round, blue circles of the middle right rosette with a representation of hail.
I admit to preferring to look at the image with the script "rightway up" -- and that could be wrong. Please note that such preferences can be represented as intrinsic evidence, that is -- evidence that comes from within the manuscript itself. I do find intrinsic evidence to have more weight than extrinsic evidence, so that is why I am presenting the rosette in this format.
However, in the rest of these arguments, I am relying on extrinsic evidence, that is to say other representations outside the VM of as similar as possible imagery. In my opinion, we don't have another example in the manuscript of this precise kind of circular images. And let's be realistic, even if this exact kind of thing was used multiple times within the manuscript, it's all speculation.
I began my extrinsic evidence search, as suggested by Koen, with a look through representative Apocalypse illustrations. Many did not represent the hail of Revelation 16:17-21 at all, or if they did represent hail, it was much more like enlarged raindrops than hail, necessarily. Here are three examples of ones showing this kind of shape that I found:
The Apocalypse of 1313, BNF, Paris, Fr. 13096, f.54r
Dublin Apocalypse, f.25r; IE TCD MS64
Abingdon Apocalypse, Add MS 42555, 3rd quarter of 13th century, French, f.61v
In searching for representations of hail in medieval manuscripts, it also became obvious that limiting to this precise part of the Bible (e.g. the pouring of the seventh vial) didn't necessarily make sense. Here is a representation of hail illustrating another part of Revelation (although combination illustrations are very common, so this might be Rev 16:21 in part) and is closer to what is in the VM in shape, if those blue circles are hail.
The Cloisters Apocalypse, ca. 1330, Normandy, FR, Cloisters, NYC, 68.174, f.20r
The one example I found of explicitly Rev 16:21 and showing regular circular hail is below:
Apocalypse between 1255 and 1360, England and France, London MS M.524 fol. 16r
I could likely find more (as well as more not fitting this scenario) but at this point I had spent the time I had. These last two examples, using very regular circles, do lend some decent support to at least some tradition of using the same exact shape for hail -- so I don't see this possibility as eliminated and I do see it as at least partially supported.
The other issue to be examined is the blue color as the two "regular circle" examples I have show the hail as uncolored -- e.g., just outlines showing through the background color in their centers.
On this question, You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. has published explicit academic work on the use of color in the Beatus commentary. This work is limited to the Beatus tradition, a particular commentary on the Apocalypse with origins in Spain. If you followed this other You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. you can learn more about Beatus. This is what she had to say about the color of hail in the 27 copies of this type of Apocalypse representations, and the footnote cites specific examples of the colors that she recorded:
But it's not only in the Beatus commentary that hail is often white. Although this is not illustrating Revelation -- here is some white hail illustrating the plague of hail in Exodus 9:19
Weltchronik, Germany, Regensburg, ca. 1360, MS M.769 f. 81v.
Importantly, it wasn't until I extended my search outside of explicit Apocalypse manuscripts into those medieval illustrations that are merely "influenced" by Revelation that I started to see a larger number of consistently parallel illustrations.
The greatest amount of discussion of circular hail I found was by those interested in Tarot card history. You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. is an example posting that discusses this type of imagery at relative length. A Tarot researcher in this string represented circular hail as a long standing and extremely well known visual tradition from multiple countries -- and the general fact that it comes up in Tarot cards, known for using established, wide-spread imagery that is selected for immediate and emotional impact, supports this.
I know that Marco has delved into Tarot cards as including possible VM related imagery and I see circular hail as another example of this --- not sure if hail came up in his studies.
In this case it is the Tower card that commonly illustrates hail, particularly in the earliest cards. This image provides a composite image of a number of the earliest known Tower cards that often feature various colored circular hail.
Granted, even the earliest of these cards is well after the carbon dating. Left most Tower card is only partial and from the "Cary Sheet"
-- this is part of a sheet of uncut set of cards housed in the Cary collection at You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. and is considered ca. 1500. You are not allowed to view links.
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Login to view. is a short article about the sheet that doesn't really delve into the Tower card but is a useful introduction. The poster in the linked string even asserted that a tradition of such shapes may be well known in the German woodcut early printed books, which I found interesting, but that research will be for another day.
Conclusion:
So, in my opinion, the strongest and most consistent evidence for the use of regular round circle outlines, possibly blue colored or some other color than white, to represent hail appears most clearly in the image history of Tarot cards, specifically the Tower card, which is thought to be highly influenced by Apocalypse based imagery. In timing, this is well after the VM carbon date. However, stereotypic imagery, such as that used in Tarot cards, had to come from somewhere, so I do think it is a good bet that round circles would evoke hail in a medieval viewer. And the VM round circles seem to be filling up the "earthly plain" (e.g., not in the heavens which is bounded by the nebuly line) also supporting the possibility this is an "earthly" issue such as enormous hail would be. But it remains that this representation is far from universal and is, admittedly, just a possibility (as with everything in the VM). However, I did come away from this work with the feeling that it is a distinct, supported possibility and did enjoy learning more about early Tarot cards. Thanks for reading!